February 2020 was a peak in Economic Expansion

The National Bureau of economic research has announced that we were in a peak of US Business Cycle Expansion February 2020. Some believe it was ended by Covid others think that we were already at that point. What do you think?

“Cambridge, June 8, 2020 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of U.S. business cycles. The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001.”

The trough months for the last several business cycles, those comprising what in macroeconomics is sometimes called The Great Moderation, the transition from recession to expansion, were:

• November 1982
• March 1991
• June 2009

The peak months for the last several business cycles, the months in which the prior expansions ended, after which recessions unfolded, were:

• July 1981
• July 1990
• December 2007
• February 2020

Visit the National Bureau of Economic Research for more information